Every year around this time, I exchange emails with a smart baseball friend -- we'll call him Rollie. The conversation starts with me asking if Rollie has seen an updated list of Over/Under Win totals for MLB teams. A few days later, he collects his list, emails it to me, and we spend the next few days debating the most interesting lines. That conversation nets some of the most compelling baseball talk I'll have all year.
The first year we broke down the lines, I found myself having to fight hard against my first problem as a baseball fan and writer: biases against lousy teams. Nothing brings out the fears and assumptions of a baseball fan more than hard predictions, with odds attached. What I learned was that you can't look at the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals as uninteresting or even hopeless. The sharps that set the lines every year want to create attractive wagering possibilities on every team. They know that people will love the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox and hate the perennial doormats. So they'll adjust the lines accordingly to even out the action on both sides.
The second lesson learned was to always consider context. You might think the Houston Astros are an old, boring team this year (or any time in the past four years, really). But they also play in a division that's usually stuffed with mediocre to awful teams. So if you're trying to pin down their expected results in any given year, you have to consider the environment in which they play, and baseball's unbalanced schedule.
Last, and here's where you can separate the novices from the true degenerates like myself who spend way too much time thinking about this stuff: You need to consider how each individual front office operates.
Back to the Astros for a second. Regardless of which GM has been in charge, Owner Drayton McLane has passed down the same philosophy for as long as he's owned the team: Never sell off your stars, and never rebuild. The Astros could have done themselves a huge favor by trading Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt two or three years ago, reloading a barren farm system. But that's now how McLane rolls. He believes the team benefits from having recognizable faces on the ballclub, and that those brand-name players will draw fans to the ballpark and stimulate revenue in general, even when those players are past their prime. Forget Berkman and Oswalt for a second: The Astros kept Craig Biggio long past his expiry date as a plus player, ostensibly so he could collect his 3000th hit in Houston and retire as an Astro. Jeff Bagwell made nearly $20 million in 2006 thanks to the owner's largesse; he played exactly zero games that season.
Teams that refuse to pack it in or look to the future can often make great, sneaky Over bets, because their level of play won't likely drop off after the trade deadline. Conversely, teams that are aggressive about turning over rosters, stockpiling prospects and saving money, can make great Under bets, if the line is right. Even then, though, you need to throw in an extra caveat: Don't bet the Under on a team likely to sell off veterans in July, if they have prospects waiting on the farm who are as good or better than the guys they're replacing.
This will be the fourth year I've reviewed the lines and made decisions accordingly. Now, I would NEVER EVER make an illegal bet on a sporting outcome - that would be terribly wrong. But if you're planning to be in Las Vegas between now and Opening Day (March Madness is just around the corner, and the first four days of the tourney are insane in Vegas), there are some nice betting opportunities on this year's slate. Since I won't be in Vegas this year, I will be making my usual wager of gummi bears. They're fruity, chewy and delicious!
2009 marked the third straight gummi-winning year for me. I pooled all my bears into one wager: the Tigers, over 83 Wins, at +115. You will almost never see me taking a teams when the odds are negative, nothing at -120 or worse, for instance (for you newbies, -120 means you're betting $120 to win $100; +115 means you're betting $100 to win $115). Baseball is rife with uncertainty, so best to focus on bets that double your gummi output or better. I'm not a big believer in diversifying either. Why make three bets you like and two you're not sure about - potentially diluting your winnings or worse - when you can make one or two wagers with conviction? Finally, all things being equal, I prefer to take the Under. Aggregate odds tend to lean slightly in favor of Under bets anyway; plus, a whole season of schadenfreude is strangely satisfying.
My picks are below. The numbers in brackets represent projections made by Sean Smith's CHONE projection system, The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, and for fun, baseball superscribe Joe Posnanski. The idea is simply that we have some numbers out there that you can compare to the Vegas odds in making your picks. As always, you'll want to do some research beyond those big, broad numbers.
(Also, these are for GUMMI BEAR PURPOSES ONLY. I'm not looking for credit if you win so many gummis that you need a root canal, nor blame if you go into candy debt.)
With all of that in mind, here are my three favorite picks for 2010:
Chicago White Sox under 82.5 (81) ...+110
My first Over/Under win ever was an Under on the White Sox, in 2007. Mainstream media and fans loved them coming off a 90-win season in '06, just two years removed from winning the World Series. Instead, the Pale Hose won just 72 games in '07; I was counting my stack of gummis by early August. The team has slowly incorporated a few younger players onto the roster to try to remedy some of the problems they had before with an old, slow roster. But this team still lacks the kind of across-the-board, dynamic talent you'd want to see in a contender. Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, John Danks and Gavin Floyd are nice building blocks. But this team still has too many Konerkos and Pierzynskis, and is still putting too much faith in Jake Peavy, a once-great pitcher coming off a major injury, transplanted to a tougher division in a tougher league in a much tougher ballpark that yields copious home runs.
Short 'em.
Tampa Bay Rays Over 88.5 (88, 92, 94, 86) ...Even
If the Rays played in any other division, this would be a lay-up. But then we remember the lesson of context. Tampa Bay Rays General Manager Andrew Friedman called this year's club the best in franchise history. That's pretty impressive, considering the Rays won 97 games and an AL pennant two years ago. But in a division with the loaded Yankees and Red Sox and the improving Baltimore Orioles, how much can we expect from the Rays?
Here's where I battle biases. I'm in the final stages of writing a book about the Rays (ESPN Books/Ballantine, Spring 2011). Having interviewed scads of players, coaches, executives, and others on and around the team, it's easy to fall into the trap of rooting for them, and possibly overestimating their talent. My self-check, oddly, is the Montreal Expos. I grew up cheering desperately for the Expos, only to see them fall short every year. Despite the natural optimism that comes with being a fan, I was also realistic about their chances, and rarely got excited when it wasn't warranted (except in 1994, but that's another story for a great Commissioner who deserves to be made into a statue - Han Solo-style, that is).
All of that means I think I'm capable of evaluating the Rays without dwelling on what a fascinating guy Gabe Kapler is, or how I could talk to Fernando Perez for two hours and wish for four more (that actually happened, matter of fact). And what I see is a team that made solid improvement in acquiring Rafael Soriano for the bullpen and Kelly Shoppach behind the plate, to go with an improving rotation and a solid lineup that could improve if B.J. Upton and Pat Burrell bounce back. The Rays are too good not to win 90-plus, even in the loaded AL East. The Hardball Times and PECOTA both agree, emphatically.
(NOTE: I will of course be steering clear of the Rays, for obvious reasons. Too big a can of worms for me to wager, even gummi worms.)
Atlanta Braves +350 to win NL East
One of the things I've noticed since starting these annual exercises is that the sharps have gotten smarter. The spread of projection systems like PECOTA, CHONE and ZIPS gives everyone - including Vegas - a chance to think analytically along with the rest of us, and also predict where people might lay their money. That means fewer and fewer great over/under opportunities every year.
With that in mind, we're taking the Braves to usurp the Phillies in the NL East. That +350 line is amazing for a team this good. The Braves trot out a deep starting rotation led by Jair Jurrjens, a now-healthy Tim Hudson and young ace Tommy Hanson. They're very good up the middle, led by Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar. And the great, big wild card is Jason Heyward, who's hit so many bombs during spring training that Braves employees are considering parking their cars in Alabama.
The Phils bring back their loaded infield, along with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and a pitching staff now led by the great Roy Halladay. But they still have a shaky bullpen, they've had a long run of great health, and they might be due for some bad luck this season. Considering the Giants - whose lineup is completely miserable outside of Pablo Sandoval - are a mere +300 to win the NL West, this Braves line looks too good to pass up.
When John Paulson bet against the real estate markets, he knew something that other people didn’t. By applying his models against purchased real estate databases, he perceived an opportunity where others saw folly. Fifteen billion in profit later, people are understandably a bit curious as how he pulled it off. Gladwell’s explanation (subscription required) focuses on the man. Personally, I’m more interested in the technology, because I think it’s probable that we’re going to see a lot more Paulsons in the days ahead.
Similarly outsized profits will, presumably, still be rare, what with the number of people entrusted to bet hundreds of millions of dollars of other people’s money not likely to ever be large. But between the accelerating democratization of the tools of large scale data processing, the dependent trend towards of ever more frictionless access to data and dramatically lower compute costs we’re see a lot more profit from data derived intelligence. In other words, I’d bet long on enterprises whose primary product is analytics driven insight.
We often speak of data as if it is the ends rather than the means. But the raw data often isn’t much help. We need intelligence, by which I mean insights derived from the data source. Or sources. To make data usable, we need to make sense of it. Which means sorting it, visualizing it, comparing it to predictive or historical models, and – increasingly – recombining it with other data.
The Boston Red Sox subscribe to a private weather forecasting service, Meteorlogix. Why? When there is so much free weather data available, why would the Red Sox pay a private service? Presumably because they feel that the private firm offers something the public services do not, and as a weather sensitive business, the economic impact of even marginally better forecasting could be material.
Businesses that monetize data aren’t new, of course. What’s different today are the capital costs. Large scale data processing software can be obtained for free. The same is often true for operational data. Storage and compute costs, meanwhile, are now both pay-as-you-go and accessible even to the smallest businesses, thanks in part to the cloud.
Consider the case of Flightcaster. After initially dismissing them as little more than a yet-to-be-acquired feature of a TripIt, I’m beginning to wonder whether or not I’ve got it the wrong way round. TripIt’s proven that there’s money in optimizing the travel schedule of individual consumers. But isn’t it possible that Flightcaster will eventually be able to extract significantly more revenue on higher margins from airlines for helping optimize their operations?
Overall — 87% of flights had time added to their scheduled between 1996 and 2009, while only 80% experienced longer actual elapsed times. Meanwhile, 10% had time subtracted from their schedules, but 16% of flights were faster in actuality. So airlines were certainly over-compensating in 2009.
Motives? Like Scott says, they are many fold: Better operations overall, better on-time performance, better ability to plan.
It’s a game airlines play to balance their operational needs and customer service. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. But predictability of delays is the biggest lever to help them play this game. Over time, we hope to use FlightCaster data to help with these kinds of decisions as we gather more data and analyze it in different ways.
Emphasis mine. How did Flightcaster, a one time Y Combinator startup, put itself in a position to know more about the state of airline operations than the airlines themselves? By building themselves a highly differentiated dataset amalgamated from sources like the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center, FlightStats and the National Weather Service. From an interview with their head of research, Bradford Cross:
The public data set that we use is the “on-time database” published by the FAA. The data set is tricky to get all in one place since the FAA does not provide any decent API to it. The biggest issue is that we make real time predictions, so we needed a historical set of captured real time data, which we had to create ourselves.
Having a more amalgamated real time dataset going back historically for a decade would be a big help. Having more modernized ways of accessing the data would be helpful.
Until then, if anyone wants to buy it, we will sell it to them for a very high price.
Is Flightcaster’s iPhone app the important product for the firm, then? I doubt it. It’s useful as a marketing tool, I’m sure, but ultimately the value of the firm lies in their data. By combining public datasets, Flightcaster can answer the easy questions – who is the most delayed airline? the most delayed airports? – as well as more complicated analyses such as “how our political system is causing flight delays,” “whether or not winter weather is causing delays” and so on. Like Google, their real value is underappreciated, because it’s a product that is indirectly monetized.
How many businesses like Flightcaster are poised to emerge over the next few years, with data easier to get, the tools to work on it cheaper, and the financial incentives better understood? Tough to say. But it’s safe to assume that there are thousands of similar asymmetries between publicly available data and the intelligence it contains yet to be discovered.
Which is why it doesn’t take much of a model to predict more of them.
This post was written for the Carrot Creative blog and has been edited for display on Just Creative Design.
The New York Snowpocalypse couldn’t stop me getting to Boston to talk at the PRSSA “PR Advanced: Brand Yourself” conference at Boston University this weekend… a canceled bus just meant I had to get the train, a minor inconvenience for what was to turn out to be a great event.
Speakers at the PR Advanced event included representatives from JetBlue, Boston Red Sox, Dunkin’ Brands, Wholefoods and then myself representing Carrot Creative and Just Creative Design.
The talk I did was titled “The Art of Online Self Promotion: Branding, Blogging & Social Media” and it gave insight on how to create a strong personal brand identity, how to set up a blog & run it as a self promotional tool and how to build relationships across social media platforms… and then some.
It all turned out to be a huge success, considering the fact that all the Carrot Creative business cards & stickers had evaporated by the end of the talk, as well as my own. Student and teacher feedback was also another great indicator, as well as a few more offers to talk elsewhere, including an offer for regular weekly lectures.
A few attendees of the conference wrote up about what they learned from me and the conference as a whole. A select few are linked below:
There are also a few pictures up of the PR Advanced event, with many more soon to follow.
The #PRAdvanced hashtag turned into a trending topic on Twitter, which was made possible by the Q&A that was set up via Tweetdeck (such a great idea). There are a lot of great tips to pick up from that stream, so be sure to check it out.
Overall it was an extremely pleasurable experience, supported by awesome event co-ordination (Great job Chelsea and friends!), a plethora of talented speakers and most importantly, the extremely passionate students & teachers that gave a Saturday up to attend. Carrot Creative and myself thank you all for the support.
Also, thanks once again for my shiny thank you certificate. Similarly, thank you to those who provided public speaking tips on my last article, always appreciated.
Snow heart photo by kimberleyfaye.
What is There to Do in Boston? is a post from Chris Pirillo
It’s been awhile since we last wrote about travel tips, as sent in by our community members. We asked months ago for you to send us the top ten places to visit in your hometown. So many of you responded that we are STILL trying to get them all posted! Today we’re going to talk about Boston. We may end up with more than ten things to do, since three of you sent in your ideas. Thanks to Mike, Robert and Charmain for letting us know what great things there are to do in Boston, Massachusetts!
It sounds as though there is no shortage of fun – and educational – things to do around Boston! There seems to literally be something for everyone!
Sometimes we really have to feel for the folks that run the Toronto Blue Jays. They are the only Canadian team, and they are in a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and now the Tampa Bay Rays. Life is tough for a “Small Market team” and they never seem to be able to afford their stars for the long term. The big questions for this club is who will replace Roy Halladay as the ace? Can Vernon Wells regain his from 2006, and does new general manager Alex Anthopoulos have a solid plan for the future?
In trading away Halladay we can effectively argue that they traded away, the best pitcher over the last decade. Now the Blue Jays do not have a pitcher who has thrown 200 innings in any one MLB season. The short term plan seems to be one of quantity over quality, the Jays have invited 30 some pitchers to Spring Training. At the moment only LHP Ricky Romero is guaranteed a spot on the starting rotation. Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, and Dana Eveland may just be the leading contenders right now to round out the starting rotation.
In 2006 Vernon Wells emerged as one of the games best Center Fielders. Since then he has severely regressed, 2009 was the low point where he hit just .260 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. Wells is 31, but that isn’t exactly old for baseball, but wrist, leg, and shoulder injuries have aged him beyond his years. Since the Jays owe him 107 million dollars over the next five seasons he must produce bigger numbers that he has lately.
So far new GM Anthopoulos has impressed by increasing the size of the Jays scouting department. While that will not pay off short term, in the long run they should be able to find some talent they can afford to keep. They have two big time prospects in Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek who will spend 2010 getting some seasoning in the minor leagues. Short term they may struggle a bit, but the long term looks a little better every day.
Related Links:
•Toronto Blue Jays news and notes
•MLB Complete.com
•The Business of Major League Baseball
That New York Times (NYSE: NYT) Company’s 2009 as a tough one is not a secret. How tough and how much did they have to do to “realign” the cost structure? Some numbers from its annual report 10-K filed yesterday.
—Reduced operating costs by about $475 million in 2009 and by approximately $136 million in 2008.
—$53.9 million pre-tax charge for severance costs.
—Reduced the number of full-time equivalent employees by 18 percent; amended pension plan for non-union employees to discontinue future benefit accruals and freeze existing accrued benefits effective Dec 31, 2009; froze supplemental executive retirement plan that provided enhanced retirement benefits to select members of management; and reduced health benefits for retirees.
—Outsourced the editing function of The New York Times News Services Division to The Gainesville Sun, part of its Regional Media Group.
—In 2009, closed City & Suburban, which operated a wholesale distribution business that delivered The Times and other newspapers and magazines to newsstands and retail outlets in the New York metropolitan area; that improved its operating results in 2009 by about $35 million, excluding one-time costs.
—In 2009, sold off WQXR-FM to Univision Radio Inc. and WNYC Radio for a total of about $45 million. Sold the TimesDaily in Florence, Ala. for $11.5 million and divested surplus real estate at the Regional Media Group. It is still exploring the possible sale of its interest in NESV (Boston Red Sox).
—Total debt level at year-end 2009 decreased to $769 million, from $1.1 billion at the end of 2008.
—Decreased capital expenditures to $45 million in 2009, down from $127 million in 2008.
—For 2010, it projects capital expenditures to be between $40 and $50 million; depreciation and amortization to be $125 to $130 million and interest to be $85 to $90 million.
—About 66 percent of the weekday and 73 percent of the Sunday circulation was sold through subscriptions in 2009; the remainder was sold primarily on newsstands.
—IHT’s circ is decreasing: end of 2009 was about 219,256 and end of 2008 was 239,689.
—About Group: About 5 percent of NYT Co’s total revenues. Cost-per-click advertising represented 59 percent of the group’s revenues in 2009; principally derived from Google.
—As of December 27, 2009, about 1,870 full-time equivalent employees of The Times and NYTimes.com were represented by 9 unions with 10 labor agreements. More than 40 percent of its full-time equivalent work force are unionized
—More than three quarters of the 1,498 full-time equivalent employees of the Globe and Boston.com are represented by 10 unions with 12 labor agreements, 10 of which were renegotiated during the second half of 2009.
—The IHT has approximately 300 employees worldwide, including approximately 176 located in France.
— In 2009, Internet revenues accounted for 13.8 percentof NYT Co’s revenues, versus 12.0 percent in 2008.
—Online ad revenues declined 10.9 percent in 2009, mainly due to classified advertising declines.
Wow, have things changed in Bean Town. Five of their eight defensive positions will feature new starters in 2010 over opening day of 2009. It still looks like a solid team, but one has to wonder if they have enough offense. The Yankees got better, so the Sox may be left to compete for the American League Wild Card spot again. Since a number of their stars are in the final year of their contracts, one has to wonder if this is an on the fly rebuild project.
The big minus for the Sox this time around seems to be the loss of Jason Bay. He more than filled the hole left by Manny Ramirez, but he is gone and no run producer was signed to replace him. The flip side of this argument is the Sox defense may be a lot better in 2010. Instead of trying to score a lot of runs this club looks like they will try to prevent their opponents from scoring runs. New additions CF Mike Cameron, and 3B Adrian Beltre are the keys to that strategy.
In the starting rotation, the Sox have two issues that are really one. The first is what to do with Tim Wakefield. It seems that Clay Buchholz has secured one of the starting five spots, and Sox Manger Terry Francona doesn’t want to use Wakefield in the bullpen. Since he also doesn’t want to be a spot starter he will have to wait out some more Daisuke Matsuzaka drama. If Dice-K struggles in spring training he will be relegated to the bull pen and Wakefield we take his spot. If not Wakefield may be the odd man out in Boston.
In the end it seems the Sox pitching is strong enough to insure another trip to the post season. Of course that will likely come via the Wild Card, but once the post season starts, it may be time for another ring in bean town.
Related Links:
•Boston Red Sox news and notes
•MLB Complete.com
Where does the time go, between the Super Bowl, Daytona 500, and the Winter Olympics it seems that the start of the 2010 MLB Spring Training really snuck up on us this year. With that being said let us take a look at the 30 team of Major League Baseball starting with the most likely to win another championship, the New York Yankees.
It is kind of scary to think that the Yankees are better in 2010 than they were in 2009. New Center Fielder Curtis Granderson is such an upgrade, and not having the pressure of batting lead off like he did for the Detroit Tigers may be just the thing Curtis needed to unleash some firepower. Of course hitting left handed in new Yankee Stadium will certainly help him improve his power numbers. While they will have a spring training battle to see who replace Johnny Damon in left the Yankee offense will be younger and faster in 2010.
The Yankee starting rotation may not be a deep as the Boston Red Sox’s but it is very scary to look at on paper. CC Sabathia return as the ace, with AJ Burnett, Andy Petite, newcomer Javier Vazquez backing him up. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will battle it out in spring training for the fifth starters spot.
The only hole I see in the Yankees roster at this point is a pretty weak bench. Typically this is how the Yankees save a little payroll. Since their big money stars are not only good but can be counted on to start 150 games a season they don’t need very strong bench players to keep the team churning.
Related Links:
•New York Yankees news and notes
•The Business of Major League Baseball
•MLB Complete.com
